Catastrophies Surround Us, Which One Will Take Us Down?

SET. Bright red sunset over Telequah. The most popular catastrophic scenarios are also the least likely, this article will talk about the more likely ones. Photo courtesy of Carter Harmon.

We all know the story of at least one apocalyptic scenario, whether it be zombies or asteroids, but what about the realistic ones? Well, here are the facts about those. Chronic Wasting Disease (A fatal neurological disease found in cervids) is close to zombification, but has never occurred in humans. Asteroids are real, but they burn up in the atmosphere and the likelihood of one actually making contact with Earth is very low. But don’t worry, there are some slightly more realistic scenarios I can talk about, some that may already be starting as you read this. On our little island home, we are surrounded by a triple threat: the Cascadia Subduction Zone, volcanoes, and tsunami threats (though very unlikely). Globally, there are situations happening right now guiding us to failure. Bee extinction, completely medically resistant bacteria, nuclear war, diminishing fresh water sources, and climate change are just some examples.

First let's talk about local geologic catastrophes. While not likely to cause total human extinction, these could still be dangerous to those who live on Vashon Island or in Seattle, Tacoma or nearby cities and towns. The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a large, earthquake producing zone where the Pacific Oceanic Plate subducts under the U.S. Continental plate. These plates are constantly pushing and pulling on each other, but not constantly moving. Every few hundred years, the pressure builds and the plates slip, causing massive earthquakes up to 9.0 magnitude around the Pacific North-West coast. This would cause tsunamis in and around the Pacific Northwest. According to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, currently the odds are only a 20% chance of a 8+ magnitude earthquake in the next 50 years, but it could technically happen any time.

If you to find yourself in the middle of this gigantic earthquake, go to strong points in a house like under tables, desks, or other objects to protect your neck, head and torso. Assume the shelter in place position with your arms covering your head and neck. After the initial shaking stops, find safe shelter. During all of this, stay away from shelves, unstable buildings, and unstable trees.

Another geologic danger for Vashon and Seattle residents are volcanoes, specifically Mount Rainier. Mount Rainier, or Tahoma as the local tribes call it, is a large volcano in central Washington state. Not only is it one of the largest peaks in the contiguous United States, it's also about double the size of Mount Fuji in Japan. According to the United States Geological Survey, this volcano has not produced a significant eruption in the last 500 years, and is considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the Cascade Range. Rainier is part of the Ring of Fire, a large volcanic chain spanning the pacific ocean. Studies conducted by the National Geographic Society show that if one of these volcanoes erupts, there is a high chance of another joining. On the Island, lahars (a kind of mudslide with pyroclastic material, water and debris that can cause harm to people and property) can’t get to you. According to the Seattle.gov website, prevailing winds will most likely blow the smoke and ash away from us. These are the two main risks of a volcanic eruption. Just make sure you have enough food and water for everyone in your group.

With global threats, there's not much you can do. As for bee extinction, which is already well on the way to a problem, try not to use pesticides or other chemicals on flowers and crops, and plant flowers to provide more pollen. Speaking of chemicals and mass destruction, if a nuke is heading directly towards you, the best thing you can do is get away as fast as possible (and even then, odds of survival are low.). If you aren't immediately obliterated, go to the nearest sealed building, duct tape all windows, vents, and doors so no fallout can enter, take off all exposed clothing and quickly take a shower, leave the clothing in a sealed bag as far away as you can, wait for at least 72 hours before going outside again, limit outside exposure and leave the city or area as soon as possible after the first 72 hours. This should protect you from the radiation particles. It's very unlikely that Vashon would be a nuke target. Seattle and Tacoma are larger cities, and Tacoma has a very large military base. Nuclear physics suggests that the fallout would mostly dissipate before reaching Vashon, but it's still better to be safe than radioactive.

Antibiotic resistance is common, but where we're heading is not. Bacteria are becoming stronger and stronger, and new antibiotics haven't been found for three decades. If we reach a point of having no working antibiotics, we would go back to medieval medicine, where we wouldn’t be able to have surgery due to the infection risk afterwards. A simple cut could kill someone. According to the World Health Organization, researchers are always trying to find new antibiotics, but the unnecessary use of antibiotics can make this problem even worse.

Many bacterial infections come from not having clean water, which is currently a growing problem for people globally. Not only is there not enough clean water, but according to National Geographic there's not enough fresh water in general. This could mean mass dehydration and death, and with studies from the Department of Energy showing how inefficient water desalination is, odds are not amazing.

Now, the ever-present threat that is climate change. While effects are relatively small right now like more common droughts, stronger hurricanes and tropical storms, and melting glaciers, according to the Natural Resource Defense Council, impacts could be detrimental to humans in the near future. Overall, there's a low chance of these situations wiping out our generation before old age does. While lots of these scenarios are in process right now, and military tensions are high, focusing only on what could happen is a fool's game. Having emergency rations and power is still a good idea, but there is no immediate need for a bunker unless you really want one, you're not going to be the next Joel Miller.

TOWER. Mount Rainier towering over the freeway. Mount Rainier is considered the most dangerous volcano in the Cascadia Range. Photo courtesy of Carter Harmon.